The forecast of the dollar for 2018
In early April, the Ministry of Economic Development published a forecast of the dollar for 2018, according to which it will be 68.7 rubles. However, after tightening the monetary policy of the United States, the document has been adjusted and now the rate of 69.8 rubles per US dollar is expected.
The dollar in Russia will rise to 69 rubles in 2018
The US Federal Reserve decided to increase the base rate by 25 bps. up to 1-1.25%. According to Maxim Oreshkin, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation, this is “an absolutely expected event.” According to the forecast published by the agency in the spring of this year, in the second half of the year pressure will be exerted on the price of oil, and America will continue to tighten monetary policy. All this affects the inflow of foreign capital into the Russian market and, as a result, the weakening of the ruble.
Updated forecast for the average dollar / ruble exchange rate:
As can be seen from the table, the updated figures exceed the old version by about a ruble.
Meanwhile, together with the updated forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development has prepared another, more positive scenario. According to him, in Russia in 2018 for one American dollar will give 69.6 rubles, in 2019 - 70.7, and in 2020 the rate will reach 71.8 rubles.
What influences the Russian ruble and what forecast do analysts
The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is the first such document prepared by the Ministry since the appointment of Oreshkin to the post of head of the department. According to the minister, the macroeconomic forecast of analysts was made in the baseline and target (more positive) scenarios, taking into account the fact that Western sanctions against Russia will continue until 2020. But the main risk for the domestic economy, the minister called China: serious cuts in foreign exchange reserves in the Middle Kingdom and the continuing outflow of capital from their economies. In the event that oil prices drop to $ 40 per barrel, we can expect the dollar at 68 rubles. If the cost of oil remains at the same level (about $ 54), then one dollar will cost about 63-64 rubles.
Speaking of oil, the Ministry of Economic Development expects a decline to $ 40 per barrel by the end of 2017.In both scenarios of the macro forecast, the department pledged the price of $ 45.6. At the same time, the ministry believes that in 2018 the cost will be at the level of $ 40.8, in 2019 - $ 41.6, and in 2020 the price per barrel of oil will reach $ 42.4.
Maxim Oreshkin also said that the ruble expects a serious weakening in the coming months. At the same time, the minister noted that if citizens are planning foreign trips, then now is the time to buy currency.
Black Gold, Carry Trade - experts predict the future of the dollar
With relatively stable prices for black gold, experts' forecasts are based on other factors. Continuing sanctions against Russia also affect the rate of the national currency - expectations of the introduction of new restrictions lead to a weakening of the ruble. The next factor is associated with oil prices, or rather, with the late reaction of the ruble. In less than a month, the price per barrel of Brent crude fell from $ 53 to $ 47.2. Some economists point out that world markets, including Russia, are not timely responding to the news flow, so the dollar began to grow only now, not a month ago.
Carry Trade operations also cause the ruble to depreciate - as the latest news spreads, foreign investors are gradually losing interest.The Central Bank of Russia reduces the rate, the Fed raises - the main indicators, due to which non-residents lose interest in playing on the difference in interest rates.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance placed long-term securities (Eurobonds) in dollars. Minister Anton Siluanov noted that by doing so they expect to attract the interest of Western investors, primarily American ones.
Experts suggest that a sharp depreciation of the ruble should not be expected. And if the Ministry of Economic Development forecasts 64.4 rubles per dollar, some analysts expect 58 rubles by the end of the year.