Oil price forecast for 2017
Reductionoil pricesinexorably brings a new wave of crisis. According to analysts of the World Bank, revenues to the budget will decrease, the forecast for the fall in GDP in 2016 has already been confirmed. However, by 2017 the prices for “black gold” will begin to climb again and, accordingly, slowly but surely, the percentage of GDP will also creep upwards.
The impact of oil prices on the economy
For the first time in many years (more precisely, since December 2008), the price of the Brent oil grade in December 2015 fell below $ 37. Naturally, against the background of a general decline in oil prices, the situation in the Russian economy deteriorated so much that the real GDP figures were significantly lower forecasted marks of the Ministry of Economic Development.
According to Alexei Ulyukayev, Minister of Economic Development, these estimates of GDP are approximate and reflect the response of the Russian economy to changes in oil prices. At the same time, inflation is falling much slower than expected, therefore, consumer demand is shrinking more.
Inflation and high spending on loans will put some pressure on domestic demand, which will slow the recovery. The data of Rosstat for 2015 indicate the worst result of retail trade turnover in the last twenty years. The World Bank predicts a decline in consumption levels until the beginning of 2017, and in 2017 a moderate growth in consumption indicators will begin, which will help the Russian economy to confidently “stand up”.
Forecast of the analytical company PIRA Energy Group
An influential expert firm predicted a fall in oil prices in 2014, but now the PIRA Energy Group predicts a rise in oil prices to $ 75 already in 2017. The executive director and founder of the company, Gary Ross, is confident in improving the situation with oil prices, which he did not fail to tell reporters at the annual client seminar:
"For a sufficient supply of the market in 2017-2018, the prices during the year should rise to 60-70 dollars."
According to the calculations of PIRA Energy Group, by the end of 2016, oil prices will rise to $ 70, and in 2017 oil will cost $ 75 per barrel.
“It takes the industry about nine months from the time when prices allow someone to buy a new rig, to increase production. This moment has not yet come, ”Ross told reporters.
According to the International Energy Agency
Oil prices are likely to start rising at the end of 2016, and by the beginning of 2017 price increases will be significant. As a result, by 2020 oil prices will reach the level of $ 80 per barrel. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, shared this opinion with journalists.
“The current level of oil prices in the region of $ 40 is unlikely to be the same in the long term, as some experts predict. We can see an upward trend in late 2016 - early 2017, and by 2020, the price level will approach $ 80, ”said Birol. He also added that “low prices have a positive effect on consumers of energy resources, however, if this level persists for a long time, it will be a negative factor for energy security in general. In particular, this concerns the fact that the production of oil outside OPEC under current conditions is under great pressure. ”
Fatih Birol believes that the continuing low prices for "black gold" will lead to a reduction in production in countries such as Russia, Brazil and the United States.
And one of the negative factors of the fall in oil prices, in his opinion, could be a reduction by some states of investments in renewable energy.
The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency noted that world oil prices are currently affected by two main points: the volume of oil production in Iraq and the volumes of shale oil production in the United States. Fatih Birol insists that further price level behavior will depend on the policies of OPEC countries and future actions on their part.
Other forecasts of banks, departments and ministries
The head of Gazprom Neft, Alexander Dyukov, is confident that the decline in oil prices will be short-lived.
“It is absolutely obvious that this price reduction will be short-term. Anyway, one way or another, in the medium or long term, prices will begin to return to the level that is fair and correct for all. I am talking about a price of 90-100 dollars per barrel. It may take a year, maybe a little more, ”Alexander Dyukov told reporters.
Investment companies also began to raise forecasts for oil prices.The worst period of decline in commodity prices, apparently, is already behind and the price for "black gold" will resume its growth in the next 12 months, and will reach $ 60 per barrel.
Banks, in turn, also believe that oil prices will rise in 2017. So, WTI oil will cost $ 64 per barrel, and the predicted price of Brent oil will be no less than $ 67 per barrel.
The US Department of Energy is more pessimistic: departmental experts expect that in 2017 the price of WTI oil will be $ 51 per barrel, and the price of Brent oil - $ 56 per barrel.