Dollar forecast for the summer of 2018
The forecast for the dollar for the summer of 2018 suggests a moderate strengthening of the US currency. In addition to economic factors, exchange rate dynamics will be associated with the development of the geopolitical situation. Experts also point out the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s policies, which could lead to a new period of volatility in the foreign exchange market.
Outlook for currency quotes
Despite the expansion of Western sanctions, the position of the ruble will remain stable, confident in the government. The dynamics of the foreign exchange market will depend on the following factors:
- Trends in the oil market.
- Western sanctions.
- Soccer World Cup.
The cost of the dollar in the short term will fluctuate within 5%, which is associated with changes in prices in the oil market. The “black gold” factor will have a decisive impact on the change in the exchange rate. Energy exports provide the lion's share of budget revenues and the inflow of financial resources.
The growth of geopolitical tensions and the extension of quotas for oil production led to an increase in oil prices in the first quarter of 2018 to $ 67- $ 73 per barrel.The oil price forecast for the summer of 2018 suggests a moderate increase in the cost of a barrel to $ 75. Pessimists do not rule out price correction to $ 60- $ 65 per barrel, if oil production in the United States continues to grow.
The oil market is responding to supply cuts. In addition to limiting the level of oil production under the OPEC + agreement, analysts have noted a record drop in investment in the development of new fields in the period 2015-2016. At the same time, the demand for oil continues to rise, which is associated with the acceleration of the global economy. As a result, the level of consumption of “black gold” for the first time over a long period of time may exceed the volumes of raw material extraction.
Oil production limits will continue to operate until the end of 2018, which will help balance the market. Stocks of "black gold" continue to decline, which confirms this trend. Another positive factor for the domestic currency - holding the World Cup, which will lead to an influx of tourists and a significant influx of currency.
Despite the rise in price of oil, currency quotes in the near future will remain vulnerable to external challenges.New restrictions from the United States led to a panic in the financial markets. Under the blow was the aluminum giant Rusal, which is fraught with serious losses for the Russian budget. According to representatives of the HSE, US sanctions will reduce the budget revenue by 2-3 billion dollars. In addition, the government will have to allocate additional resources to timely service the debt of Rusal.
Negative geopolitical factors will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar. Also, the US currency will receive support from the Fed. At the same time, the course will be under pressure as a result of interventions by the Ministry of Finance and a reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank.
Financial analysts note the protectionist policy of Donald Trump, which aims to stimulate the growth of the American economy. Trade restrictions aimed at importing Chinese products and duties on aluminum will contribute to the development of domestic production.
In addition, experts allow substantial capital inflows into the US economy after tax reform and the next Fed rate hike.During 2017, the US currency lost about 7% of its value relative to the multi-currency basket. This year, the dollar has good prospects to regain lost ground.
Quotes of the Russian currency remain under pressure as a result of interventions by the Ministry of Finance. At the end of last year, the department converted more than 829 billion rubles, which restrained the strengthening of the ruble. According to HSE experts, this policy of the Ministry of Finance led to an increase in the value of the dollar by 5%.
This year, the Ministry of Finance plans to increase the volume of interventions up to 2.8 trillion rubles, which is facilitated by the positive dynamics of the oil market. In addition, the position of the Russian currency came under pressure as a result of a gradual reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank. The regulator continues to revise this indicator in response to slowing inflation and improving the economic situation.
The fall in the rate leads to an outflow of speculative capital, primarily from non-residents. The decline in the profitability of Russian assets forces investors to redirect their resources to other markets.
In such circumstances, experts are considering several options for changing the value of the dollar in the short term.Including analysts allow the implementation of a pessimistic forecast for the summer of 2018, which involves the strengthening of the dollar to 70 rubles / dollar.
- The baseline scenario - fixing quotes in the range of 61-63 rubles / USD. At the same time, oil prices will remain at $ 70 per barrel, and Western sanctions will not be expanded.
- An optimistic forecast is the strengthening of the domestic currency to 58-60 rubles per dollar, which will be possible due to an increase in the cost of a barrel to 75 dollars.
- Pessimistic scenario. The correction in oil prices to $ 60 per barrel against the background of new sanctions from the United States will lead to a new weakening of the ruble. As a result, quotes may reach 70 rubles / dollar.