Deflator Index Forecasts for 2019
In the Russian business environment, one very interesting and, in fact, an extremely capacious indicator - the deflator index - is in stable interest.
It is truly difficult to overestimate its benefit, because with its help it is easy to “figure out” in which direction the weather-pricing policy of the state price policy turned, so that you can know what to expect from the economic situation in its dynamics, trace the patterns of behavior of the authorities in terms of managing it.
It is on the basis of this characteristic that we calculate the indexation of social payments and various tariffs, the adjustment of real prices of purchases and sales, and also make predictions on how to behave further in the foreign exchange market.
In 2018, the Government expects a significant reduction in the level of inflation, saying that the economy is part of its natural stability band. True, at the same time, a number of skeptics argue that at the moment the figures of 4-5% are completely artificially restrained tendencies, the true nature of which sooner or later will make itself felt.
And, according to quite pessimistic forecasts, this will happen no later than 2019. Well, let's try to figure out what the Ministry of Economic Development thinks about this, and also try to assess how close his predictions are to reality.
Heading for stability!
In concrete figures, the Ministry of Economic Development has set the index deflator for 2019 at a level of 103.4%. This is despite the fact that in 2018, in his opinion, the objective is to wait no less than 109%.
A year later - in 2020 - everything will be even more beautiful: 101.7%. In short, the ministry believes that in just three years, the country will be able to almost completely beat inflation, as such, prices will stop rising, and in general everything will be in the openwork.
As you know, the Russian currency market is extremely tied up, as, indeed, its entire economy, to the quotes of the oil market - it is “black gold” that ensures the stability of domestic money.
The authorities believe that this natural asset has taken a clear course to increase its value, therefore, they expect that a return to the similarly obese initial two thousandth is about to come.
True, the Ministry of Economic Development, as usual, does not comment on the optionwhen some other changes will occur in parallel, which will again collapse the ruble, apparently already forgetting what this unshakable belief in the stability of oil revenues has recently led to. But, as practice has shown, its dependence on political decisions is not only strong - it is critical.
Therefore, knowledgeable people recommend not to take the above figures for the ultimate truth: use them, but constantly monitor the information on adjustments of deflator indices in 2019.
Believe it or not?
If we take the concrete current moment, the situation really looks quite encouraging: compared to previous periods, prices have indeed slowed their growth, and, as is typical, not only in the consumer basket, but also in the industry and the macroeconomic field. Which is, of course, pleasant in itself.
However, taking into account the essence of the deflator index - a comparison of the cost estimates of different periods of all the main areas of trade, production, the service sector and all types of foreign economic activity, it is not quite clear how the Ministry of Economic Development can rely on the scenarios of events developed by them, if you know how and the structure that is forced upon the mood of the authorities.
Obviously, it is difficult to expect objectivity here - in the conditions of a modern paradigm of overestimation of indicators and silence, on the contrary, problem areas.
At the same time, completely rejecting the likelihood of trends in the deflator index decline in the very near future is not worth it - it’s just, perhaps, better to dwell on more cautious forecasts, if you want to evaluate what will happen next in reality.
At the same time, of course, we should not forget that the data published by the ministry is exactly what we will have to rely on in real pricing and building a behavioral strategy in the market. At this point, as they say, you cannot get anywhere.
And if next year, GDP growth, as the Ministry of Economic Development suggests, will be 2-3%, and will not fall to a pessimistic 1.5-1.75%, voiced by the World Bank and the IMF, then it is possible that not even 103 , 4%, and something a little more, we will see in reality in 2019.
And what do the experts say?
At the Higher School of Economics, the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development are frankly ridiculed, relying on the fact that even in 2018, the Office deflator index was set at 103.8%, and then, at the beginning of the current year, after an objective reassessment of the situation, it suddenly improved to 109% .
And so far there are no prerequisites for this figure to drop by as much as 6%, no. At the same time, according to the inflation index, it seems that the Central Bank will be able to keep it at 4% for quite a long time (it is possible that if everything goes the way it is now, then this trend will continue in 2019) .
But here, experts insist, there is one hidden threat to which few pay attention, inspired by beautiful figures: low profitability of the state as a whole, gradual ousting of the country from key foreign markets, reformatting economies that previously relied on Russian energy supplies, critical reduction of investment activity and the increasing authoritarian pressure of the center serve as very disturbing bells, which in the complex sooner or later will cause a real storm.
The economy cannot be “half-market” - this situation cannot be called balanced, and it will always strive to either oppose regulatory mechanisms, inventing its own opposition formats, or, conversely, reject models adopted in the civilized world, increasingly widening the gap between themselves and others. countries.And the last thing to which we have been moving so persistently recently, of course, by no means can lead to stimulation and growth.
Extreme technological lag, dependence on the supply of solutions and products from the outside, lack of own assets, as well as a narrow focus of foreign economic activity, will sooner or later bring the country to its knees, are confident in HSE.
But, for some reason, the authorities stubbornly refuse to notice the predictions that produce various degrees of optimism.